The International Air Transport Association reports international traffic for October shows improving conditions, although the industry is still on target for an $11 billion net loss for 2009.
IATA reports:
Passenger demand was up 0.5% compared to October 2008. Demand for international cargo rose to 0.5% below previous year levels. This is significantly better than the 5.4% decline recorded in September. Load factors for passenger and cargo continue at pre-recession levels of 78.0% and 54.1% respectively.
The improvement that started since passenger traffic hit bottom in March is similar to the pace of growth in 2006 and 2007. Without an exaggerated rebound from pent-up demand, there will be no rapid catch-up to the growth trend established in the 2005 to early-2008 period. “The crisis has cost the industry two years of growth. Adjusting costs and capacity to meet that reality will be challenging,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
The improvement in load factors to pre-recession levels is largely the result of careful capacity management. Compared to October 2008, overall passenger capacity on offer was down 3.3%. Stripping out seasonal fluctuations, passenger capacity has been essentially flat throughout 2009. Responding to the precipitous fall in cargo demand, October cargo capacity was 7.4% below the previous year’s levels.
Cargo capacity adjustments have come with many freighters being put into storage or retired, resulting in a fleet reduction of 4.9%. In contrast, the passenger fleet continues to expand by 1.8% as new deliveries more than offset those being stored or retired. Aircraft utilization for both wide and narrow-body aircraft is now 6% below early 2008 levels. This low asset utilization is increasing operating costs.
Yields remain under severe pressure. Although there has been a modest rise in air fares since mid-year, it remains around 20% less expensive to fly in real terms today than it was a year ago.
International Scheduled Passenger Demand:
- Passenger demand is now 6% better than the low point reached in March 2009, but 5% below the peak recorded in early 2008.
- Compared to September, seasonally adjusted passenger volumes rose by 0.8%. Carriers in all regions except the Asia-Pacific, Middle East and North America saw improved demand in October compared to September.
- Asia-Pacific carriers saw demand grow 0.9%, lower than the 2.1% recorded in September. The carriers in this region, together with the European carriers, have seen demand rise the most from their low points.
- While European carriers saw a demand decline of 3% in October, it is an improvement from the -4.2% in September. European carriers demand is still below the levels from last year due to weakness across the Atlantic and within Europe.
- North American carriers saw significant growth in international traffic through the middle of 2009. Very significant capacity cuts across both the Atlantic and Pacific have reduced traffic carried in October to -2.6% below 2008 levels.
- Middle Eastern carriers saw demand grow 14.3% (compared to 18.2% in September), the highest among the regions. The region’s carriers continue to add capacity, increasing 15.3% in October and outpacing the growth in demand.
- Latin American carriers saw significant increases in the demand for air travel, growing 9% compared to 3.4% in September. The region’s carriers continue to add capacity, growing 3.7% compared to 2008
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